Continuity prevails in Ireland’s General Election
After approximately four days of counting—an expected outcome given Ireland’s staunch support of paper-only ballots—the results of the 2024 Irish general election have been finalized. The message? Continuity over change.
The current governing coalition of Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael secured 48 and 38 seats respectively, while their stiffest competition, Sinn Féin, secured 39. No other party managed to secure more than 11 seats, meaning the country is now poised for weeks of negotiations to form a new government. The inevitable outcome of these discussions is an extension of the 2020 Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael coalition, as both parties have reaffirmed their unwillingness to form government with Sinn Féin and only need two additional seats to retain power.
If—or more aptly, “once”—this outcome is solidified, it cements a bucking of the global trend which has seen incumbents struggle in re-election bids. By re-nominating the “identical twins of Irish politics” to serve in the Dáil, the people of Ireland have signaled their satisfaction with the status quo.
It was only one year ago these results would have been considered unlikely. Sinn Féin, both Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael’s stiffest competition, was the most popular party in the Republic at that time, with support reaching 30% to 35% beginning as far back as early 2021. This led many to believe that the party had an opportunity to shake things up in the Dáil and continue its ascent from 14 seats in the 2011 election, to 23 in 2016, and further to 37 in 2020. Polling data suggested as much until October 2023, when Sinn Féin’s support began to slip, before ultimately falling below 20% by summer of 2024.
Why this noticeable shift in the polls for Ireland’s left-wing nationalist party occurred is up for discussion, but some pundits believe their hesitation to confront the challenges associated with increased immigration head-on fractured what has traditionally been their working-class base. Ultimately, the 2024 general election resulted in Sinn Féin’s vote share contracting for the “first time in 35 years”, with their percentage of first-preference votes falling from 24.5% to 19.0%. While securing the second-most seats of any party is still an incredibly strong showing, it was not as impressive as many were expecting just a short while ago.
Among the other parties and candidates, independents secured 17 seats (a decrease from 19 in 2020), though their share of first-preference votes rose from 13.1% to 15.5%. Notably, independent candidates experienced a significant rise in polling data beginning in late 2023, which carried through to election day. The Social Democrats and Labour parties each nearly doubled their seat count, from 6 to 11, while the Green Party, which had propped up the Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael coalition in 2020, lost 11 of their 12 seats. The newly formed right-wing Independent Ireland party secured 2 seats and 3.6% of first preference votes in their first general election.
Across the pond in Canada, voters will face a similar decision in 2025. Current polling suggests a less than 1% chance of the incumbent government remaining in power and a 98% probability of the leading opposition, The Conservative Party of Canada, winning a majority government. That said, if any lessons can be drawn from the Irish general election, it’s that political landscapes can shift suddenly, and with the election currently slated for October, time is plentiful.
With the framework for Ireland’s government taking shape and a pivotal Canadian election on the horizon, it will be fascinating to see how these “new” administrations navigate Irish-Canadian relations—a key partnership grounded in shared values and economic interests, with bilateral trade between the two countries estimated at $4.0 billion (CAD) in 2023. With such significance, the continuity of this relationship should be a top priority for both Ireland and Canada.